by Steve Rohosky
Bernard Sanders, Incorporated, along with several of his most devoted media acolytes, are continuing to perpetuate this fantasy that the Ol’ Socialist can still win the Democratic nomination. Of course, it’s in Bernard’s best $$$$$ interest to keep the minions primed, for those who joyously celebrate this fractured fairy tale help keep the Sanders cash machine flowing like the mighty Mississippi River after spring rains. Even though his April haul dropped by more than 41%. Seems Barn-Barn and Janey discovered this presidential thing pays exquisitely more than does his rather mundane day job.
But this scenario Bernard colorfully parrots, as to him still having the ability to win the nomination, is well…utter folly. Something which only those most severely encrusted with the BS fairy dust are prone to believe, let alone repeat, automaton style. And I will tell you why.
13 states, territories and Washington, DC have yet to hold Democratic primaries and caucuses. For the sake of expediency, let’s split them into two groups: A) California, New Jersey, DC and B) Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota and, lest we forget, South Dakota. Now, group A has 734 elected delegates–NOT the super ones–up for grabs, while B) will provide 416, also of the elected variety.
The primaries in CA and NJ are classified as mixed, meaning unaffiliated voters can cast ballots for any party and registrations can be changed on the day of voting. Several factors have been considered to estimate the percentage of votes HRC will receive.
First: the abnormally large minority population of DC, coupled with high minority percentages in CA and NJ, should offset the mixed type of primary in which Clinton has had somewhat inconsistent results. DC, which is closed, quite possibly will provide Hillary with a win upwards to 40 points, seeing as how she was victorious in MD–Baltimore also has a very large minority population–by 30. Second: colleges and universities in CA will be on summer recess for at least a full two weeks come its June 7 primary. Unless those students have registered to vote in their home towns, or they return to school (having previously registered there) a great deal of presumed Sanders supporters will not be able to have their voices heard. Third: Nate Silver’s 538 has given Hillary a 91% chance of winning California. Not enough data and/or recent reputable polling has taken place in NJ for them to make a call.
Taking all that into consideration, I give Hillary 54.5% of the vote in group A, meaning she wins 400 delegates, Sanders 334.
Group B breaks down thus: 5 closed primaries–SD, NM, OR, KY and Guam. The primary in MT is open, while that in WV is mixed. Which leaves 3 caucuses in ND, Puerto Rico and the glorious Virgin Islands. So far we have seen HRC do extremely well among just Democrats in closed primaries. Considering the three caucuses represent just 102 delegates, I foresee Hillary winning 55.3% of the vote and gaining 230 more delegates, while Bernard gains another 186.
As of May 4, Mrs Clinton has amassed 1,683 elected delegates. Add to that the 400 allotted from A group and another 231 via B and she tallies 2,344, leaving her just 39 shy of the magic 2,383. Sanders has thus far accumulated 1,361 through his wins and when combined with his A group of 334 and B pool of 160 projects to 1,855 delegates awarded. While 1855 may have been a good year in some states, it will hardly be a memorable one in the Sanders camp as it leaves Bernard short by 528 delegates.
One wildcard in all this is Puerto Rico, which is looking at a potential bankruptcy, virtually any day now. With 67 delegates to be won, a large swing in votes toward whichever candidate favors a willingness to cut the island the a favorable deal, is a distinct possibility.
Which brings us to those wild and wacky super delegates, all 747 of them, ready to take flight to most likely determine the Democratic presidential nominee. As we have been made aware countless times, these are the party “elite”: Congresspersons, governors and all ’round good eggs who were deemed important enough to the party and loyal to the professed idea that a strong, electable nominee shall be anointed at the convention. All the sturm und drang going on over at the GOP as per the Anyone-But-Trump movement would essentially be moot on the Democratic side. Should an über buffoon the likes of The Donald one day garner numbers about equal to those Hillary Clinton is projected here to carry–close, but no cigar–then the supes would swoop down and truly save the day for the Democratic Party by boosting the delegate total of a more preferable and infinitely more electable candidate over the top and onward to victory in November.
That Bernard Sanders has been able to convince but a relative handful of the Democratic nobility to throw down with him and his ersatz revolution, has not been entirely lost on the candidate. Where once he deplored the very idea of these individuals taking it upon themselves to have final say as to the ultimate nominee–should neither candidate accumulate the mystical 2,383–Sanders has flopped and flipped his way to where he now espouses a tangentially differing point of view from his initial one.
His latest being two tiered: since a handful of polls rate him as having a statistically better shot at defeating Trump, because Janey believes her hubby to be the best candidate, Sanders should therefore be coronated as the Democratic Party nominee. But ONLY after DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wassermann-Schultz makes nice-nice for having treated them so badly, that she grovel before them prettily please to show the extent of her appreciation for the honor he does the Democratic Party by accepting its nomination.
But wait! If THAT ritualistic scenario doesn’t titillate the interest of the party muckety-mucks, well then Bernard will then propose all those super delegates from all the states which His Excellency Bernard the First won (or came in second) should be required to vote for him, no matter to whom they initially intended to pledge their everlasting support and fealty.
Yes, the very same super delegates Sanders actually expects will abandon a loyal, hard working, devoted-to-the-cause-for-a-half-century Democrat, like Hillary Clinton. A candidate who has raised hundreds of millions of dollars through the years to help elect down ticket congresspersons, senators, governors, state and local elected Democratic representatives. Expects them to throw her overboard in favor of someone who has raised comparative peanuts for other Dems, has blasted the party and its ideals for decades. All to the benefit of candidate trailing badly in the popular vote who is not even a registered Democrat!
That this concept to which Sanders desperately clings is a unique, totally unrealistic and immensely egocentric rewriting of party rules seems to matter not to His Excellency, and should come as no surprise, really. After all, what cares he for anything as mundane as pre established and mutually agreed upon party rules?
Meaning, after slogging through a year and three months of campaigning, after primaries, debates, innumerable appearances and caucuses held, along with tens of millions of votes cast, as well as many hundreds of millions of dollars donated, ALL of it be damned and while we’re at it, go ahead and give yourselves a big hand for having participated! Because Bernie Sanders really and truly wants the Democratic Party to just GIVE him the nomination.
Having waged a campaign based strictly upon slogans and being able to identify a couple of societal problems and economic inequalities, while offering up tax increases as his only viable solutions, voters across the nation have responded by casting three million more ballots for his opponent. As the process wends its way toward California–truly the pot of delegate gold awaiting one worthy candidate at the end of this political rainbow–Sanders continues to prove he is not the best candidate to represent the party, come November. What it all comes down to in the end, for him, is this plan of going to the convention to convince the party elite that voter nullification is the way to go. It’s his only chance.
Hiding somewhere within the dark recesses of his mind, there is no doubt Sanders truly believes he can pull this off. For that alone, not to mention a multitude of other more marked motives, the Senator from Vermont deserves his Less Than Zero chance of leaving Philadelphia with the 2016 Democratic nomination for President of these sometimes United State clutched tightly in his always grasping, grabbing, greedy-for-more hands.
No how, no way. Period. Exclamation point.